Rogers: please fire this guy.
Wednesday, 30 April 2014
PJ Stock on Offensive Zone Faceoffs
PJ Stock on HNIC just vouched for putting the Sharks fourth line out there in the offensive zone after an icing over any of Thornton, Couture and Pavelski. Without mentioning the cheap shot on Friedman's insightful tracking of zone starts, this is just sheer stupidity. PJ Stock gets paid to analyze hockey and doesn't agree with putting out a premier offensive centre to try to capitalize on a tired 5 man unit.
Wednesday, 16 April 2014
Kevin Cheveldayoff Dislikes Analysis
Kevin Cheveldayoff indicates Ondrej Pavelec will return as the Jets number 1 goalie next year. This is terrible news for fans hoping to make the playoffs. Scrolling through the stats on NHL.com Pavelec 45th in GAA (fairly useless stat but I'll use it to illustrate Pavelec's overall terribleness) and 46th in save percentage (a fairly predictive stat). I guess his three assists count for something since he outscored James Wright?
From Chevy:
“He’s a relatively young goaltender when it comes to being a starting goaltender,” Cheveldayoff said. “When you give those young players those opportunities to excel, there’s going to be some bumps along the way.
“As far as statistical data, we could sit here and have debates all day about different percentages or goals against ... at the end of the day, everyone gets judged on the results. If we sat there and broke it into 10-game segments, I’m sure there are some great segments there that Ondrej would have had. You take some other 10-game segments and there’s probably some that he’d like back.”
I have a couple problems with this. First, here are a number of goalies with a younger birth year than Pavelec's 1986 that had better seasons in terms of SVP:
Tuukka Rask BOS (1987)
Semyon Varlamov COL (1988)
Carey Price MTL (1987)
Frederik Andersen ANA (1989)
Sergei Bobrovsky CBJ (1988)
Jonathan Bernier TOR (1988)
Steve Mason PHI (1988)
Braden Holtby WAS (1988)
Darcy Kuemper MIN (1990)
Robin Lehner OTT (1991)
Eddie Lack VAN (1988)
Jhonas Enroth BUF (1988)
James Reimer TOR (1988)
Marek Mazanec NAS (1991)
Some other 86 goalies include Jonathan Quick, Anton Khudobin and Ben Scrivens.
So Chevy he's not that young relative to other goalies anymore. He's consistently proven his mediocrity. He's 73rd out 105 active goalies in SVP. This isn't a guy that is going to lead the Jets to the playoffs unless the Jets turn into Boston and Chicago and start scoring a ton of goals.
I know what people are going to say: but a good defence would change this. I'll say no morons-the inclusion of Bernier, Reimer and Enroth in this list (and Ryan Miller had he been younger) would have shown that a defence doesn't dictate SVP. People smarter than me on fangraphs have also shown that SVP varies little with changes in shot area and quality.
The next issue I have a problem with is Chevy's snide comments about save percentage and statistical analysis. You're the GM of a $200+ million dollar NHL franchise and you're throwing this metric under the bus (a bus that could likely drive through Pavelec). The problem with looking at 10 game averages and saying you can remove the bad ones is that those games count towards a team's final position. These games do not disappear. The other issue is that there are 45 guys that posted consistently better 10 game averages. All these 10 game averages influence a team's season. Pavelec is near the bottom of this metric which is highly indicative of a goalie's contribution level. I don't care if Pavelec has won 10 game stretch where's he awesome. He needs to have a bunch of these over the course of the year and he has shown that he is incapable of this.
If Pavelec magically has a career year and posts a league average save percentage, I'll be thrilled, but 288 games is a good sample size and if past save percentage is an indicator of future save percentage, than he is likely not to get substantially better.
From Chevy:
“He’s a relatively young goaltender when it comes to being a starting goaltender,” Cheveldayoff said. “When you give those young players those opportunities to excel, there’s going to be some bumps along the way.
“As far as statistical data, we could sit here and have debates all day about different percentages or goals against ... at the end of the day, everyone gets judged on the results. If we sat there and broke it into 10-game segments, I’m sure there are some great segments there that Ondrej would have had. You take some other 10-game segments and there’s probably some that he’d like back.”
I have a couple problems with this. First, here are a number of goalies with a younger birth year than Pavelec's 1986 that had better seasons in terms of SVP:
Tuukka Rask BOS (1987)
Semyon Varlamov COL (1988)
Carey Price MTL (1987)
Frederik Andersen ANA (1989)
Sergei Bobrovsky CBJ (1988)
Jonathan Bernier TOR (1988)
Steve Mason PHI (1988)
Braden Holtby WAS (1988)
Darcy Kuemper MIN (1990)
Robin Lehner OTT (1991)
Eddie Lack VAN (1988)
Jhonas Enroth BUF (1988)
James Reimer TOR (1988)
Marek Mazanec NAS (1991)
Some other 86 goalies include Jonathan Quick, Anton Khudobin and Ben Scrivens.
So Chevy he's not that young relative to other goalies anymore. He's consistently proven his mediocrity. He's 73rd out 105 active goalies in SVP. This isn't a guy that is going to lead the Jets to the playoffs unless the Jets turn into Boston and Chicago and start scoring a ton of goals.
I know what people are going to say: but a good defence would change this. I'll say no morons-the inclusion of Bernier, Reimer and Enroth in this list (and Ryan Miller had he been younger) would have shown that a defence doesn't dictate SVP. People smarter than me on fangraphs have also shown that SVP varies little with changes in shot area and quality.
The next issue I have a problem with is Chevy's snide comments about save percentage and statistical analysis. You're the GM of a $200+ million dollar NHL franchise and you're throwing this metric under the bus (a bus that could likely drive through Pavelec). The problem with looking at 10 game averages and saying you can remove the bad ones is that those games count towards a team's final position. These games do not disappear. The other issue is that there are 45 guys that posted consistently better 10 game averages. All these 10 game averages influence a team's season. Pavelec is near the bottom of this metric which is highly indicative of a goalie's contribution level. I don't care if Pavelec has won 10 game stretch where's he awesome. He needs to have a bunch of these over the course of the year and he has shown that he is incapable of this.
If Pavelec magically has a career year and posts a league average save percentage, I'll be thrilled, but 288 games is a good sample size and if past save percentage is an indicator of future save percentage, than he is likely not to get substantially better.
Monday, 14 April 2014
Steve Simmons on Vibe
Just turned on The Reporters on TSN and Steve Simmons doesn't get the same vibe from Ilya Bryzgalov as he does from Semyon Varlamov. Vibe-winning playoff series since 2014. For the record, Bryzgalov outvibed Varlamov 3-1.2 in the last two weeks of the season.
Sunday, 13 April 2014
Mark Stuart and Grit
Just did a quick scan of the Winnipeg Free Press comments on Winnipeg Jets contracts for next years. Note what Ed Tait says about Mark Stuart:
Mark Stuart: Grit, character, leader type ideally suited for the third line. Just signed a four-year extension at $2.62 million.
I know Winnipeg loves Stuart. But when there's nothing positive to say about his actual ability to play hockey there's a severe problem. His closest comparable players in terms of salary next year are (per Capgeek along with some indicators from Extra Skater):
Kris Russell (Flames): 29 pts in 67 games, 43.4% CF 5 on 5 (-3.3% rel), 52.3% O/D St
Jared Spurgeon (Wild): 25 pts in 65 games, 52.1% CF 5 on 5 (+3.1% rel), 51.4% O/D St
Nick Leddy (Blackhawks): 31 pts in 82 games, 57.1% CF 5 on 5 (+2.3% rel), 62.3% O/D St
Roman Polak (Blues): 13 pts in 72 games, 49.4% CF 5 on 5 (-5.8% rel), 46.2% O/D St
Andrej Sekera (Canes): 44 pts in 72 games, 51.5% CF 5 on 5 (+1.5% rel), 52.8% O/D St
And finally for Mark Stuart:
13 pts in 69 games, 47.6% CF 5 on 5 (-2.5% rel), 46.7% O/D St
So when we look at these guys, we see decent point producers (Polak aside) and decent Corsi's (Polak and Russell aside). Russell also plays with a lot of bad players in Calgary, which would negate some of his O/D Start percentage advantage compared to the others while Polak plays on an awesome team which makes should negate some of his O/D Start percentage disadvantage.
Sekera had a wicked season with Carolina, putting up over 0.5 PPG and had a better relative Corsi (helped by a good 52.8% St %). Leddy put up a nice Corsi with an insane start percentage and produced points and Spurgeon was extremely effective in 65 games.
I know all these players are at different stages in their life cycles, but there's virtually nothing quantifiable that would make you want Stuart over them (Polak is debatable).
Stuart blocks a lot of shots and throws hits, but that's because he's stuck in zone regularly as his Corsi would indicate. Looking at his contract compared to his peers, the Jets seem to have overpaid.
For the record, Spurgeon outgritted Stuart with a grit per minute ratio of 2.1 compared to 1.32 (it's easy to make things up to prove points).
Mark Stuart: Grit, character, leader type ideally suited for the third line. Just signed a four-year extension at $2.62 million.
I know Winnipeg loves Stuart. But when there's nothing positive to say about his actual ability to play hockey there's a severe problem. His closest comparable players in terms of salary next year are (per Capgeek along with some indicators from Extra Skater):
Kris Russell (Flames): 29 pts in 67 games, 43.4% CF 5 on 5 (-3.3% rel), 52.3% O/D St
Jared Spurgeon (Wild): 25 pts in 65 games, 52.1% CF 5 on 5 (+3.1% rel), 51.4% O/D St
Nick Leddy (Blackhawks): 31 pts in 82 games, 57.1% CF 5 on 5 (+2.3% rel), 62.3% O/D St
Roman Polak (Blues): 13 pts in 72 games, 49.4% CF 5 on 5 (-5.8% rel), 46.2% O/D St
Andrej Sekera (Canes): 44 pts in 72 games, 51.5% CF 5 on 5 (+1.5% rel), 52.8% O/D St
And finally for Mark Stuart:
13 pts in 69 games, 47.6% CF 5 on 5 (-2.5% rel), 46.7% O/D St
So when we look at these guys, we see decent point producers (Polak aside) and decent Corsi's (Polak and Russell aside). Russell also plays with a lot of bad players in Calgary, which would negate some of his O/D Start percentage advantage compared to the others while Polak plays on an awesome team which makes should negate some of his O/D Start percentage disadvantage.
Sekera had a wicked season with Carolina, putting up over 0.5 PPG and had a better relative Corsi (helped by a good 52.8% St %). Leddy put up a nice Corsi with an insane start percentage and produced points and Spurgeon was extremely effective in 65 games.
I know all these players are at different stages in their life cycles, but there's virtually nothing quantifiable that would make you want Stuart over them (Polak is debatable).
Stuart blocks a lot of shots and throws hits, but that's because he's stuck in zone regularly as his Corsi would indicate. Looking at his contract compared to his peers, the Jets seem to have overpaid.
For the record, Spurgeon outgritted Stuart with a grit per minute ratio of 2.1 compared to 1.32 (it's easy to make things up to prove points).
Sunday, 7 August 2011
First Post: London Knights Lovefest
A quick introduction-for those who remember the brilliant days of Fire Joe Morgan...I am going to try to replicate that here, except with a focus on my favourite sport-hockey.
First off-an article from the London Free Press about a couple of mediocre pro hockey players.
http://www.lfpress.com/sports/hockey/2011/08/04/18512081.html
Syvret looking for his shot
Brandon Prust and Danny Syvret have both played for three NHL teams.
This is probably due to their inability to their mediocrity rather than demand of NHL GMs.
But when you picture the hustling Prust, you think immediately of Broadway and the New York Rangers.
No you don't-you think of a guy who seems to always get traded with Olli Jokinen.
He’s made that kind of impact in his short time in the Big Apple.
Syvret, his old London teammate and the captain of the Knights’ 2005 Memorial Cup championship squad, doesn’t have a similar connection to one big-league franchise yet.
He was heading that way this spring in his second go-round with the Philadelphia Flyers, but his future there is once again up in the air.
“You look at the Rangers and they have a coach in John (Tortorella) who rewards hard work,” the 26-year-old Syvret said. “You mention (hockey commentator) Pierre McGuire talking about him during games and he does that because Brandon is one of those hard-working players who has been able to carve out a niche for himself there.
Pierre McGuire probably thinks that Prust is a better hockey player than Artem Anisomov, a young Russian who has a chance to hit 25 goals this year. This is also the same Tortorella who rode Martin St. Louis, Brad Richards and Vincent Lecavalier like crazy to the '04 finals. Tim Taylor worked his ass off, but really, he didn't play too much for a great reason.
“He did that for us in London and he’s doing the same in New York.”
Prust had a career year at Madison Square Garden with 13 goals, 29 points and 160 penalty minutes. He played every game despite needing surgery this summer to repair a shoulder injured in a fight in late November.
Not a very intelligent idea considering the importance of shoulders to pro hockey players.
“It was against (6-foot-5, 230-pound) Mike Rupp when he was with Pittsburgh,” the 27-year-old Londoner said. “Now, he’s with us on the Rangers.”
Prust is entering the final year of his contract. He’ll be doing everything possible this season to earn another one.
Some GM will give him a ridiculous contract-I guarantee it.
Syvret is an unrestricted free agent. He expects to know by next week where he’ll end up.
“You just want to play somewhere.”
Something that is apparently unique to Syvret.
He started the year in Anaheim before Philly brought him in to shore up the defence with its American Hockey League affiliate in Adirondack. He finished the season with the Flyers and saw his first NHL playoff experience.
“All any of us looks for is that opportunity to be a regular with a team,” Prust said, “and we’re always rooting for each other. It’s all about getting your shot. It’s the same thing with (Rob Schremp). You know what these guys are capable of and you hope they find a spot where they’ll be able to show what they can do.”
Rob Schremp-the guy that was released by Winnipeg, a team that lacks goal scoring punch. Offence is the one thing Schremp still has the potential to put up. I guess what Syvret means they are capable of putting up pretty poor numbers over a half-decent sample size.
They will, of course, always be associated with the London Knights. They will once again be part of the team’s golf tournament at Forest City National, which will be held Aug. 19 with proceeds to the Ronald McDonald House charity.
Not going to criticize this-good for them.
Prust has his old Knights coach in part to thank for landing him in New York.
“Before the Rangers made the trade (with Calgary in 2010), they called Dale Hunter first to find out what kind of person I was,” Prust recalled. “At least that’s the story I heard. He gave the stamp of approval.”
Good thing New York didn't look at stats or anything like that...and what he did he expect, for Hunter to say he was some sort of asshole, who goes around taking candy from kids?
Prust, like most of his Rangers teammates, lives in Manhattan.
“I have my (vehicle) and we drive to practice in Tarrytown,” he said, “but in the city, we always cab it. New York is a city where you can’t really just drive to the store and come home with a bunch of grocery bags. It’s easier just to go to the corner deli and eat there.”
And when you’re at a restaurant, club or show, there are usually people watching where you’re going and who you’re going with. Prust has found himself in the gossip pages a couple of times and that only raises an athlete’s profile.
Another thing that raises an athlete's profile-being good at the sport you play.
“It’s an exciting place,” he said. “No one is telling you what to do (or when to go home). It’s up to you and your own self-discipline. You have to be smart about it all.”
The same goes for probably 90% of working adults in the world. This isn't a problem unique to Prust.
All their old Knights mates are keeping track. The players have set up a network; they have all joined into a sort of online forum to stay in touch.
“We all have BlackBerries,” Syvret said, “and if Brandon gets in a fight or scores a goal, we’ll all get on there and chirp him about it. All of us are good about that.”
Prust and Syvret were part of a large local group that went with Corey Perry to the NHL awards in Las Vegas.
“We knew he was going to win the Rocket (Richard trophy),” Syvret said, “but he’s up for the Hart and you don’t realize how big it is until they start rattling off the names — Bobby Orr, Guy Lafleur — and Corey definitely deserved it.”
Corey Perry was great, but Tim Thomas was just as deserving.
In the NHL, old friendships die hard. Same with old rivalries. Sidney Crosby will be back in the Pittsburgh lineup at some point, and when he faces the Rangers, he’ll be reminded of the ’05 Memorial Cup final.
“He doesn’t bring it up on the ice,” Prust said, “but I’m sure I’ll be telling him, ‘Remember ’05. Remember ’05’. That will happen.”
Hopefully Crosby will make a crack about his 2009 Stanley Cup. Sidney Crosby is also one of the best players of this generation and is infinitely better than Brandon Prust. What a jerk for not being surrounded by the players Prust was back in 2005.
First off-an article from the London Free Press about a couple of mediocre pro hockey players.
http://www.lfpress.com/sports/hockey/2011/08/04/18512081.html
Syvret looking for his shot
Brandon Prust and Danny Syvret have both played for three NHL teams.
This is probably due to their inability to their mediocrity rather than demand of NHL GMs.
But when you picture the hustling Prust, you think immediately of Broadway and the New York Rangers.
No you don't-you think of a guy who seems to always get traded with Olli Jokinen.
He’s made that kind of impact in his short time in the Big Apple.
Syvret, his old London teammate and the captain of the Knights’ 2005 Memorial Cup championship squad, doesn’t have a similar connection to one big-league franchise yet.
He was heading that way this spring in his second go-round with the Philadelphia Flyers, but his future there is once again up in the air.
“You look at the Rangers and they have a coach in John (Tortorella) who rewards hard work,” the 26-year-old Syvret said. “You mention (hockey commentator) Pierre McGuire talking about him during games and he does that because Brandon is one of those hard-working players who has been able to carve out a niche for himself there.
Pierre McGuire probably thinks that Prust is a better hockey player than Artem Anisomov, a young Russian who has a chance to hit 25 goals this year. This is also the same Tortorella who rode Martin St. Louis, Brad Richards and Vincent Lecavalier like crazy to the '04 finals. Tim Taylor worked his ass off, but really, he didn't play too much for a great reason.
“He did that for us in London and he’s doing the same in New York.”
Prust had a career year at Madison Square Garden with 13 goals, 29 points and 160 penalty minutes. He played every game despite needing surgery this summer to repair a shoulder injured in a fight in late November.
Not a very intelligent idea considering the importance of shoulders to pro hockey players.
“It was against (6-foot-5, 230-pound) Mike Rupp when he was with Pittsburgh,” the 27-year-old Londoner said. “Now, he’s with us on the Rangers.”
Prust is entering the final year of his contract. He’ll be doing everything possible this season to earn another one.
Some GM will give him a ridiculous contract-I guarantee it.
Syvret is an unrestricted free agent. He expects to know by next week where he’ll end up.
“You just want to play somewhere.”
Something that is apparently unique to Syvret.
He started the year in Anaheim before Philly brought him in to shore up the defence with its American Hockey League affiliate in Adirondack. He finished the season with the Flyers and saw his first NHL playoff experience.
“All any of us looks for is that opportunity to be a regular with a team,” Prust said, “and we’re always rooting for each other. It’s all about getting your shot. It’s the same thing with (Rob Schremp). You know what these guys are capable of and you hope they find a spot where they’ll be able to show what they can do.”
Rob Schremp-the guy that was released by Winnipeg, a team that lacks goal scoring punch. Offence is the one thing Schremp still has the potential to put up. I guess what Syvret means they are capable of putting up pretty poor numbers over a half-decent sample size.
They will, of course, always be associated with the London Knights. They will once again be part of the team’s golf tournament at Forest City National, which will be held Aug. 19 with proceeds to the Ronald McDonald House charity.
Not going to criticize this-good for them.
Prust has his old Knights coach in part to thank for landing him in New York.
“Before the Rangers made the trade (with Calgary in 2010), they called Dale Hunter first to find out what kind of person I was,” Prust recalled. “At least that’s the story I heard. He gave the stamp of approval.”
Good thing New York didn't look at stats or anything like that...and what he did he expect, for Hunter to say he was some sort of asshole, who goes around taking candy from kids?
Prust, like most of his Rangers teammates, lives in Manhattan.
“I have my (vehicle) and we drive to practice in Tarrytown,” he said, “but in the city, we always cab it. New York is a city where you can’t really just drive to the store and come home with a bunch of grocery bags. It’s easier just to go to the corner deli and eat there.”
And when you’re at a restaurant, club or show, there are usually people watching where you’re going and who you’re going with. Prust has found himself in the gossip pages a couple of times and that only raises an athlete’s profile.
Another thing that raises an athlete's profile-being good at the sport you play.
“It’s an exciting place,” he said. “No one is telling you what to do (or when to go home). It’s up to you and your own self-discipline. You have to be smart about it all.”
The same goes for probably 90% of working adults in the world. This isn't a problem unique to Prust.
All their old Knights mates are keeping track. The players have set up a network; they have all joined into a sort of online forum to stay in touch.
“We all have BlackBerries,” Syvret said, “and if Brandon gets in a fight or scores a goal, we’ll all get on there and chirp him about it. All of us are good about that.”
Prust and Syvret were part of a large local group that went with Corey Perry to the NHL awards in Las Vegas.
“We knew he was going to win the Rocket (Richard trophy),” Syvret said, “but he’s up for the Hart and you don’t realize how big it is until they start rattling off the names — Bobby Orr, Guy Lafleur — and Corey definitely deserved it.”
Corey Perry was great, but Tim Thomas was just as deserving.
In the NHL, old friendships die hard. Same with old rivalries. Sidney Crosby will be back in the Pittsburgh lineup at some point, and when he faces the Rangers, he’ll be reminded of the ’05 Memorial Cup final.
“He doesn’t bring it up on the ice,” Prust said, “but I’m sure I’ll be telling him, ‘Remember ’05. Remember ’05’. That will happen.”
Hopefully Crosby will make a crack about his 2009 Stanley Cup. Sidney Crosby is also one of the best players of this generation and is infinitely better than Brandon Prust. What a jerk for not being surrounded by the players Prust was back in 2005.
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