Sunday, 13 April 2014

Mark Stuart and Grit

Just did a quick scan of the Winnipeg Free Press comments on Winnipeg Jets contracts for next years.  Note what Ed Tait says about Mark Stuart:

Mark Stuart: Grit, character, leader type ideally suited for the third line. Just signed a four-year extension at $2.62 million.

I know Winnipeg loves Stuart.  But when there's nothing positive to say about his actual ability to play hockey there's a severe problem.  His closest comparable players in terms of salary next year are (per Capgeek along with some indicators from Extra Skater):

Kris Russell (Flames): 29 pts in 67 games, 43.4% CF 5 on 5 (-3.3% rel), 52.3% O/D St
Jared Spurgeon (Wild): 25 pts in 65 games, 52.1% CF 5 on 5 (+3.1% rel), 51.4% O/D St
Nick Leddy (Blackhawks): 31 pts in 82 games, 57.1% CF 5 on 5 (+2.3% rel), 62.3% O/D St
Roman Polak (Blues): 13 pts in 72 games, 49.4% CF 5 on 5 (-5.8% rel), 46.2% O/D St
Andrej Sekera (Canes): 44 pts in 72 games, 51.5% CF 5 on 5 (+1.5% rel), 52.8% O/D St


And finally for Mark Stuart:


13 pts in 69 games, 47.6% CF 5 on 5 (-2.5% rel), 46.7% O/D St

So when we look at these guys, we see decent point producers (Polak aside) and decent Corsi's (Polak and Russell aside).  Russell also plays with a lot of bad players in Calgary, which would negate some of his O/D Start percentage advantage compared to the others while Polak plays on an awesome team which makes should negate some of his O/D Start percentage disadvantage.  

Sekera had a wicked season with Carolina, putting up over 0.5 PPG and had a better relative Corsi (helped by a good 52.8% St %).  Leddy put up a nice Corsi with an insane start percentage and produced points and Spurgeon was extremely effective in 65 games.

I know all these players are at different stages in their life cycles, but there's virtually nothing quantifiable that would make you want Stuart over them (Polak is debatable).  

Stuart blocks a lot of shots and throws hits, but that's because he's stuck in zone regularly as his Corsi would indicate.  Looking at his contract compared to his peers, the Jets seem to have overpaid.

For the record, Spurgeon outgritted Stuart with a grit per minute ratio of 2.1 compared to 1.32 (it's easy to make things up to prove points).

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